Market Update, June 2016
DIS and DAT - Market Update, June 2016
The ultimate authority must always rest with the individual's own reason and critical analysis.
Performance review by the numbers
We begin by reviewing past performance of broad areas, which is not indicative of future results.
Index Y-T-D 1 Year 5 year(annualized)
SP 500 1.74% 1.05% 10.42%
SP 500 Value 4.35% 0.00% 9.21%
SP 500 Growth (0.74)% 1.57% 11.42%
Russell 2000 Growth (3.73)% (8.03)% 7.13%
Russell 2000 Value 3.86% (3.83)% 6.35%
Aggregate Bond 3.43% 2.50% 3.29%
MSCI EAFE (0.20)% (9.71)% 1.24%
Gold 21.29% 8.93% (3.49)%
XOM 16.02% 7.86% 4.01%
Commodities 7.39% (29.26)% (16.56)%
SOURCE: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar.com – As of 5/31/2016
The S&P 500 ended the month of May with a gain of 1.8% thanks to a late rally after the Fed suggested the U.S economy could handle higher interest rates, possibly as early as June. In the U.S, Growth outperformed Value for the first time in 2016, led by the Technology and Healthcare sectors, which have been the laggards year-to-date. Small Caps continued to outperform Large Caps, as they have done since the February lows. The International Developed markets continued to underperform on the backdrop of a Brexit in Europe and the strengthening Yen in Japan.
In the Fixed Income space, high yield bonds continued their outperformance as investors search for yield with U.S. Government yields at historic lows and negative yields at the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. Also contributing to the high yield rally is the decline of defaults in high yield energy bonds with oil hitting $50/barrel for the first time since November 2015. The yield curve continues to flatten with the 10-year minus 2-year spread falling below 1%.
As for Commodities, oil remained strong after attacks in Nigeria and rigs continuing to come offline led to worries over supply constraints. Gold finally took a breather in May as the U.S Dollar strengthened on possible interest rate hikes. After years of declines, Commodities have been the best performing asset class year-to-date.
At the end of May, our internal Asset Allocation model suggests new money be invested 50% International Developed markets and 50% Aggregate Bond Index. International is the most out-of-favor asset class due to persistent relative underperformance to other equity markets. And while higher interest rates pose significant risks, Bonds can be a holding place to wait for possible opportunities elsewhere. Large Cap Growth has been the top performing asset class for the last 5 years, so that would be the first place we’d look to create cash.
We appreciate your time and will talk to you again soon,
Reggie McFadden, CFA
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Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Diversified Investment Strategies, LLC dba Advisor.Investments), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Diversified Investment Strategies, LLC dba Advisor.Investments. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Diversified Investment Strategies, LLC DBA Advisor.Investments is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. If you are a Diversified Investment Strategies, LLC dba Advisor. Investments client, please remember to contact Diversified Investment Strategies, LLC dba Advisor.Investments, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. A copy of the Diversified Investment Strategies, LLC dba Advisor.Investments current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request.
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All indexes are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. (JPM: Guide to the Markets)
The S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. equities market. This world-renowned index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 Index focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with approximately 75% coverage of U.S. equities, it is also an ideal proxy for the total market. An investor cannot invest directly in an index (JPM: Guide to the Markets)
The Russell 2000 Growth Index® measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. (JPM: Guide to the Markets)
The Russell 2000 Value Index® measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. (JPM: Guide to the Markets)
The MSCI®EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Net Index is recognized as the pre-eminent benchmark in the United States to measure international equity performance. It comprises 21 MSCI country indexes, representing the developed markets outside of North America. (JPM: Guide to the Markets)
The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. The index covers U.S. investment grade fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific indexes that are calculated and reported on a regular basis. (JPM: Guide to the Markets)
The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index is composed of futures contracts on physical commodities and represents 22 separate commodities traded on U.S. exchanges, with the exception of aluminum, nickel, and zinc. (JPM: Guide to the Markets)
The spot price for gold bullion is determined by market forces in the 24-hour global over-the-counter (OTC) market for gold. The OTC market accounts for most global gold trading, and prices quoted reflect the information available to the market at any given time. (Ishares)
XOM is the common stock symbol of ExxonMobil Corporation that trades on the exchange